High Probability Trades – A simple, understandable approach to trading financial markets

To start with, take note of the title of this website – High Probability Trades!

I am not an investor, I am a trader. It’s an important distinction. Investors tend to look at fundamental information and make decisions intended to last for long periods of time. They believe in the company they are buying stock in. With my approach, everything I need to make a buy or sell decision is represented in the chart. While I will take note of the sector & industry the company is in, and perhaps at times allow this information to create a bias in my choices, I basically trade the charts.

I am a trend follower and I’ll show you the method I use in the markets. The entry and exits are the secret sauce, along with trading in the direction of the indicators. While there is a large array of indicators a trader can use, I’ll show you how I use Stochs and two moving averages to time my entries and exits to increase my probability of success.  I’ll cover how to set them up and why I use them for entries and exits.

The three most important things you need for success:

  • A Method
  • Discipline
  • Patience 

It’s very important to understand that you have to have a specific plan and stick to it. If you lose money, change the plan and test again. Continue to fine tune your methods to fit your needs as a trader, time, etc…  While I certainly can’t make promises, if you follow what I do you have a reasonable chance of success.

Don’t be put off by some of the pics of the brokerage interface I use. What I do is pretty darn simple once you are used to looking at a chart. I probably use about 1% of the goodies in the software, LOL. I’ll provide good examples of everything I talk about to help you learn.

While I am certainly willing to admit I may be wrong, I have convinced myself that the methodology I use now produces a reasonable probability of successful trades. Probability is the key word. Everything I do is designed to increase my probability of success, no darts allowed! In the bull market over the past year it has worked well, yielding me right at a 100% increase on my account balance. When the bull stops it will be a different story, which is the main reason you want to understand how to read trends. Failing to observe the trend of both the stock you trade & the overall market will break your account very soon.

Just so you know I’m not blowing smoke up your wazoo in regards to how well my methods work I’ll be showing every trade I do on this page: Current & past trades

To save you some research I’ll also be sharing my current watchlist of tickers I scan daily looking for my next trades here: Current Watchlist

Also know that most of the funds I trade now are in an IRA account. 

However I do have a another smaller account to play with some options. I created this account when I correctly spotted the reversal in the markets that began in July 2023.  As of Nov 2023, this account is up over 100% in just four months. You can learn more about my safe approach to trading options – I DO NOT USE MARGIN, on this page: Why Trade Options?

You should also know that I am not new to trading. I began in the markets back in the mid 80’s. I’ve spent a few grand on courses and seminars, and have a pretty significant library of trading books. I traded a seven figure account during the tech boom in the late 90’s, and lost all of my gains in the crash that started in March, 2000. I refused to see the trend reversal!


Identify & Folllow Trends  ==>

Hi Propbability Entries ==>

The Art of Exiting a Trade ==>

The trend is your friend as they say

I’ll also cover why I use two different time frames, once in a while, even 3, to see the trends in different lights. I’ll introduce you to some basic tech analysis of charts – so you won’t have to read any books!

Entries are not the Hard Part!

My entries are intended to minimize the chances of the trade going wrong as soon as I get in! Sure it happens, but I do my best to enter in a methodical way, no darts allowed!

The Exit is the Most Difficult part of Trading!

Many people use stops, they’ve never worked for me. On this page I’ll cover the physchological and technical aspects of making exits to maximize profits – the secret sauce!

The most important page on this website is the ‘About’ page. Before you go any futher read it Here to understand why I built this site.